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An Analysis of Potential Heat-Related Mortality Increases in U.S. Cities Under a Business-as-Usual Climate Change Scenario
2007-09-06
 Heat-Mortality_Report_.pdf
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Executive Summary
Heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United
States, responsible for more than 3,400 fatalities between 1999 and
2003.
As climate change is projected to raise average mean temperatures
over North America by approximately 6.3°-11°F within this century,
heatwaves are likely to increase in magnitude and duration in portions
of the U.S. where they already occur. This analysis attempts to
quantify the projected increase in heat-related mortality due to
climate change for 21 U.S. cities by determining the sensitivity of the
population of each city to extreme heat events and applying that
sensitivity to a projection of mid-century climate conditions. A method
to account for acclimatization was also employed, as it is likely that
the population will partially adjust to the increased warmth. The
findings indicate that for most of the cities studied, climate change
is projected to more than double the average number of summertime
heat-related deaths, with the greatest increases occurring in
mid-latitude major cities where summer climate variability is greatest.
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